Enrollment at our nation’s accredited colleges fell by more than a quarter of a million this fall (yoy), according to a report released yesterday by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. Given the improving labor market and declining number of high school graduates, a decline was expected.
The sectors that serve the adult, nontraditional student bore the brunt of the enrollment losses: two-year public (mainly, community colleges) and for-profit institutions (although part-time enrollment gained at the for-profits).
The private nonprofits actually gained a little. It was the larger institutions (those with enrollments over 10,000) that grew the most. I suspect these improved numbers were driven primarily by SNHU (discussed below).
Predictably, the largest losses were with students over the age of 24. If you remove from the equation the adult (nontraditional) students who attend community colleges, the national numbers actually held up pretty well.
However, when you look at the state-by-state breakdown of the data, you quickly find some troubling numbers. Some states have hemorrhaged students over the past several years. Losses of this magnitude inevitably are having a major impact on some of the institutions within those states, and the situation probably will only get worse.
It’s interesting to see how Kansas is apparently poaching students from its neighbors (for example, from Iowa, which has been experiencing significant, multiyear declines). Expect a counter-offensive or at least new defensive measures.
Finally, it’s interesting to note the substantial year-after-year growth in New Hampshire. I can only assume this reflects the rapid growth of Southern New Hampshire University’s online programs. SNHU is a private, nonprofit institution.
Of course, these are only headcount numbers. They say nothing about net revenue per student or total revenue. We know from other reports (e.g., Moody’s) that the situation is mighty bleak for many colleges when it comes to finances.
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